From the Team @ HPLT 5/19
Markets Update
Markets were up for a 3rd week in the past four. We are now ~ 3% from the record high set back in February, and close to 20% above the April lows following the initial tariff announcements from Trump. The agreement between the US & China a little over a week ago, was both better-than-expected + happened faster-than-expected… The markets reacted accordingly, playing catchup right from the jump a week ago today. There was also a renewed sense of hype & excitement from the AI space, with several positive announcements coming from Saudi Arabia during Trump & teams’ trip to the Middle East last week. Consumer sentiment (which seems to be officially disconnected from market action at this point) printed its second lowest reading since 1952… the survey was through May 13th, i.e. before US & China settled on trade concessions. That said, the sentiment reading coming in BELOW where it sat during peak Covid 5+ years ago seems insane.
Corporate Roundup / Macro Highlights
Broadcom saw shares climb on strong demand for AI hardware, many private firms are favoring employee share sales over IPOs, US capital markets activity is picking up with a couple successful recent IPOs, along with several companies filing publicly (i.e., more formally preparing to come public in the coming weeks), 401k provider Empower is set to open private equity and Credit as allocation options for their 401k holders, Hedge fund legend and Mets owner Steve Cohen sees 45% chance of US recession in the next 12 months, HBO’s Max has rebranded (again) to HBO Max, and the US spring home buying season had its weakest start in the last 5 years.
Speaking of Steve Cohen- including a few big-picture zingers from last week when he spoke at the Sohn Investment Conference:
On being a Trader last 47 years: 'Consider facts, pattern recognition'
Always be skeptical
Self doubt is normal, what you do about it is all that matters
Winners don't get complacent, they find ways to CHALLENGE THEMSELVES every single day
At Age 69, he said he manages his time carefully in solving for 'MAX JOY'
Preparation minimizes mistakes, but don't be afraid to make them, that is quite literally how you learn
Best attribute? “I'm hard wired, never give up, tenacious”.
“Dad taught me to be humble” – thinks about that a lot. Considers himself irrelevant
Go Make Your Week Great